Geopolitics

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

September 20100%YesNo
September 25100%YesNo
September 30100%YesNo
October 7100%YesNo
October 15100%YesNo
October 12100%YesNo
October 5100%YesNo
October 9100%YesNo
October 24100%YesNo
October 22100%YesNo
October 17100%YesNo
October 28100%YesNo
October 16100%YesNo
October 18100%YesNo
October 31>99%YesNo
November 2>99%YesNo
November 300%YesNo
December 310%YesNo
November 150%YesNo
November 220%YesNo
November 80%YesNo
November 40%YesNo
November 60%YesNo
November 30%YesNo
November 70%YesNo
November 50%YesNo
$39.4M Vol.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18100%YesNo
July 20100%YesNo
July 22100%YesNo
July 25100%YesNo
July 31100%YesNo
August 15100%YesNo
August 31100%YesNo
July 23100%YesNo
July 24100%YesNo
July 26100%YesNo
July 27100%YesNo
July 28100%YesNo
July 29100%YesNo
July 30100%YesNo
August 9100%YesNo
August 2100%YesNo
August 1100%YesNo
August 3100%YesNo
August 4100%YesNo
September 30100%YesNo
October 31100%YesNo
September 15100%YesNo
October 15100%YesNo
October 9100%YesNo
October 21100%YesNo
October 18100%YesNo
October 24100%YesNo
October 27100%YesNo
October 29100%YesNo
October 30100%YesNo
November 1>99%YesNo
November 2>99%YesNo
November 3>99%YesNo
November 498%YesNo
November 596%YesNo
November 693%YesNo
November 787%YesNo
November 1569%YesNo
November 2256%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
December 1541%YesNo
December 3137%YesNo
$44.6M Vol.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot55%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu27%YesNo
Naftali Bennett5%YesNo
Avigdor Lieberman4%YesNo
Yossi Cohen1%YesNo
Amir Ohana1%YesNo
Israel Katz<1%YesNo
Yair Lapid<1%YesNo
Benny Gantz<1%YesNo
Gideon Sa’ar<1%YesNo
Yair Golan<1%YesNo
Itamar Ben Gvir<1%YesNo
Ofer Winter<1%YesNo
Aviv Kohavi<1%YesNo
Yariv Levin<1%YesNo
Moshe Feiglin<1%YesNo
Ayelet Shaked<1%YesNo
Yoaz Hendel<1%YesNo
Nir Barkat<1%YesNo
Daniel Hagari<1%YesNo
Gilad Erdan<1%YesNo
$85.6M Vol.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3164%YesNo
December 3139%YesNo
November 3022%YesNo
November 159%YesNo
July 240%YesNo
July 310%YesNo
August 150%YesNo
August 310%YesNo
July 140%YesNo
September 300%YesNo
October 310%YesNo
August 70%YesNo
August 80%YesNo
August 90%YesNo
August 100%YesNo
August 110%YesNo
August 120%YesNo
August 130%YesNo
August 140%YesNo
August 220%YesNo
September 70%YesNo
September 140%YesNo
September 210%YesNo
October 150%YesNo
November 20%YesNo
$47.4M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%
chance
YesNo
$77.4M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%YesNo
March 31, 20276%YesNo
December 31, 20262%YesNo
July 31, 20260%YesNo
August 31, 20260%YesNo
September 30, 20260%YesNo
$31.6M Vol.
Trump out as President before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%
chance
YesNo
$13.8M Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

5%
chance
YesNo
$29.3M Vol.
Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202727%YesNo
December 3110%YesNo
November 305%YesNo
September 300%YesNo
July 310%YesNo
August 310%YesNo
August 150%YesNo
August 220%YesNo
October 310%YesNo
March 130%YesNo
March 310%YesNo
April 300%YesNo
May 310%YesNo
June 300%YesNo
$28.8M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11%
chance
YesNo
$16.5M Vol.
Israel military action against Beirut by...?

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

November 3019%YesNo
July 140%YesNo
July 210%YesNo
July 310%YesNo
August 310%YesNo
September 300%YesNo
October 310%YesNo
$632.6K Vol.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%YesNo
November 3022%YesNo
November 61%YesNo
August 150%YesNo
August 310%YesNo
September 150%YesNo
September 300%YesNo
October 310%YesNo
October 150%YesNo
October 70%YesNo
November 20%YesNo
$3.5M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%
chance
YesNo
$4.7M Vol.
Crude Oil all time high by...?

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202724%YesNo
December 3111%YesNo
May 310%YesNo
June 300%YesNo
September 300%YesNo
$5.5M Vol.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%
chance
YesNo
$45.7M Vol.
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?

Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?

Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken98%YesNo
Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds2%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken<1%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds<1%YesNo
$96.9K Vol.
US imports Russian diesel by...?

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 3124%YesNo
January 3121%YesNo
December 3119%YesNo
November 3016%YesNo
November 1511%YesNo
October 310%YesNo
November 20%YesNo
$976.7K Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%
chance
YesNo
$1.3M Vol.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202639%YesNo
November 30, 202627%YesNo
September 24, 20260%YesNo
September 30, 20260%YesNo
October 31, 20260%YesNo
October 5, 20260%YesNo
$1.3M Vol.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

44%
chance
YesNo
$1.1M Vol.

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