Economy

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Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase78%YesNo
No change22%YesNo
50+ bps increase1%YesNo
25 bps decrease<1%YesNo
50+ bps decrease<1%YesNo
$12.1M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

11%
chance
YesNo
$16.5M Vol.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

76%
chance
YesNo
$1.4M Vol.
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change75%YesNo
25 bps decrease25%YesNo
50+ bps decrease<1%YesNo
25 bps increase<1%YesNo
50+ bps increase<1%YesNo
$301.8K Vol.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%YesNo
1 (25 bps)1%YesNo
3 (75 bps)<1%YesNo
2 (50 bps)<1%YesNo
4 (100 bps)<1%YesNo
12+ (300+ bps)<1%YesNo
5 (125 bps)<1%YesNo
6 (150 bps)<1%YesNo
7 (175 bps)<1%YesNo
8 (200 bps)<1%YesNo
9 (225 bps)<1%YesNo
10 (250 bps)<1%YesNo
11 (275 bps)<1%YesNo
$55.4M Vol.
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas90%YesNo
Dem sweep; Gas hits $3.509%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Gas hits $3.50<1%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas<1%YesNo
$40.5K Vol.
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause75%YesNo
Pause-Pause-Hike12%YesNo
Pause-Pause-Pause9%YesNo
Pause-Hike-Hike7%YesNo
Other1%YesNo
Hike-Pause-Hike0%YesNo
Hike-Pause-Pause0%YesNo
Hike-Hike-Hike0%YesNo
Hike-Hike-Pause0%YesNo
$144.4K Vol.
Bank of England decision in November?

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase99%YesNo
No change1%YesNo
50+ bps increase<1%YesNo
50+ bps decrease<1%YesNo
25 bps decrease<1%YesNo
$476.4K Vol.
Bank of Brazil decision in November?

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

No Change96%YesNo
25 bps decrease4%YesNo
50+ bps decrease<1%YesNo
50+ bps increase<1%YesNo
25 bps increase<1%YesNo
$157.5K Vol.
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?

Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?

Dem sweep; No recession65%YesNo
Dem sweep; Recession35%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Recession<1%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No recession<1%YesNo
$29.4K Vol.
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas70%YesNo
Dem sweep; Gas hits $4.5030%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Gas hits $4.50<1%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas<1%YesNo
$21.4K Vol.

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