共和党が勝つのはどの上院スイング州ですか？（マップを構築）

なしアラスカ全7州AK、IA、KS、ME、MI、OH

結果確率

なし終了

85%▲ 51%

アラスカ終了

16%▲ 14%

全7州終了

<1%▼ 4%

AK、IA、KS、ME、MI、OH終了

<1%

AK、IA、KS、ME、MI、TX終了

<1%

アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、メイン、オハイオ、テキサス終了

<1%▼ 2%

アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサス終了

<1%▼ 1%

アラスカ、アイオワ、メイン、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサス終了

<1%

アラスカ、カンザス、メイン、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサス終了

<1%

アイオワ、カンザス、メイン、ミシガン、オハイオ、テキサス終了

<1%▼ 1%

アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、メイン、ミシガン終了

<1%

アラスカ、アイオワ、カンザス、メイン、オハイオ終了

<1%▼ 1%

ルール

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

出来高: $7718.7万
終了日: 2026年11月3日