イランの指導者は2026年末？

モジュタバ・ハメネイ国家元首不在アリレザ・アラフィレザ・パフラヴィ

結果確率

モジュタバ・ハメネイ

89%▲ 3%

国家元首不在

4%

アリレザ・アラフィ

3%

レザ・パフラヴィ終了

2%

モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ終了

1%

ハッサン・ロウハニ終了

<1%

アフマド・ヴァヒーディー終了

<1%

ハッサン・ホメイニ終了

<1%

マリアム・ラジャビ終了

<1%

マスード・ペゼシュキアン終了

<1%

アッバース・アラークチー終了

<1%

ムハンマド・ミルバキリ終了

<1%

ルール

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

出来高: $4070.7万
終了日: 2026年12月31日